Analyzing Risk - E-Commerce - Lecture Slides, Slides of Fundamentals of E-Commerce

Students of Communication, study E-Commerce as an auxiliary subject. these are the key points discussed in these Lecture Slides of E-Commerce : Analyzing Risk, Standard Deviation, Dispersion, Variability, Statistical Measure, Clustered, Widely Dispersed, Population, Sample, Calculating

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2012/2013

Uploaded on 07/29/2013

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Analyzing Risk
Standard Deviation ( ): a statistical measure
of the dispersion, or variability, of outcomes
around the mean or expected value ( ).
Low standard deviation means that returns are
tightly clustered around the mean
High standard deviation means that returns are
widely dispersed around the mean
σ
ˆ
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Analyzing Risk •^ Standard Deviation

(^ ): a statistical measure of the dispersion, or variability, of outcomesaround the mean or expected value (

-^ Low standard deviation means that returns aretightly clustered around the mean •^ High standard deviation means that returns arewidely dispersed around the mean

ˆr

Calculating Standard Deviation •^ Three common ways of calculating standarddeviation:^ •^ Returns are known with certainty^ • Standard deviation of a population• Standard deviation of a sample^ •^ Returns are not known with certainty

Standard Deviation of a Sample

(^ )^

(^ )^

(^ ) 2

2

2

1

2

N

r^2

  • r^ + r
  • r^ +...+ r
  • r

S^ =^

N - 1

2 First, calculate the variance (S^ s =^ S

The standard deviation (s) is the square rootof the variance:

Standard Deviation:

Example

-^ You have been given the following sample of^ stock returns, for which you would like tocalculate the standard deviation:{12%, -4%, 0%, 22%, 5%}

Standard Deviation:

Example

-^ You have been given the following sample of^ stock returns, for which you would like tocalculate the standard deviation:{12%, -4%, 0%, 22%, 5%} •^ Step 2:

Calculate Variance ( )^ (^

)^ (

)

(^ )^

(^ )^

(^ )^

(^ )^

(^ )

−^ +^ −

−^ +

−^

+^ −^

+^ −

=^

=

2

2

2

1

2

N

2

2

2

2

2

2

r^ - r^ + r

  • r^ +...+ r
  • r

S^ =^

N- 12 7

4 7

0 7

22 7

5 7 5 1 106

Standard Deviation:

Example

-^ You have been given the following sample of^ stock returns, for which you would like tocalculate the standard deviation:{12%, -4%, 0%, 22%, 5%} •^ Step 3:

Calculate Standard Deviation

2 s = S = 106 = 10.3%

Standard Deviation:

Example

-^ You have been provided with the followingpossible returns and their associatedprobabilities.

Calculate the expected return and the standard deviation of return.^ State of Economy

Return^

Probability

Boom^

30%^

15%

Normal^

15%^

60%

Recession

0%^

25%