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Master in International Relations, Diplomacy and Management International Relations Theories: NQF Level 9 - Credits 20 Course Instructor: Charles Mubita (PhD)
DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN POLICY
Those factors that influence and determine the foreign policy of a country are its determinants. Some of these factors are static or of unchanging nature whereas others are in a state of flux and their dynamics are continually adjusted to the changing circumstances.
EXTERNAL DETERMINANTS
1) Power Structure
The modern state system has been in existence since 1648 Treaty of Westphalia. The modern state system includes major, middling, and small powers. All states conduct their own foreign policies. One primary objective of each county's foreign policy is to maintain its own political independence and security. In the traditional multi-polar system, it was easier for states to switch sides and gain maximum gains from all sides. Thus Italy used this skill deftly and switched sides during the height of World War I to gain its share in the post war colonial arrangement.
During the bipolar world system, however, the ideological fault lines were more clearly marked, and it was not easy for states to switch sides frequently. Thus during the cold war, the countries of the Eastern Europe under the security umbrella of the Warsaw Pact were under the direct influence of the former Soviet Union. And the countries of the Western Europe together with the US and Canada entered into an alliance known as North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The states were faithfully wedded to their respective alliances, and any signs of freedom were strictly checked by the two superpowers. The demise of the Soviet Union and the advent of the uni-polar world has its own system dynamics. Bush’s ‘either with us or against us’ sort of declaration made many states from the margins of the system to come forward and play effective roles in the so- called Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). Every type of power structure at international level has its own particular dynamics and that has its impact on the foreign policies of the states.
2) International Organizations
The role and importance of international institutions as instruments of states’ foreign policies, and the political, military, functional, economic and humanitarian roles played principally by the United Nations in international relations cannot be overestimated. These international organizations to varying degrees serve as modifiers of state behaviour and as independent actors in their own right. They have profound impact on the determination of the foreign policy of a state. No state can decide and conduct its policy arbitrarily to the detriment of other states. UN and other multilateral forums come to the rescue of the aggressed state. Usually sanctions are imposed which in
some cases become very effective provided the international community imposes them sincerely.
3) Reaction of other states
Likewise the system of states is fast transforming into a society of states state where each and every individual states has regard for the rights of other states. Being sensible to the sensibilities of other states, no state can adopt a unilateral policy. It has to take into account, and accommodate, if possible, the interests of the other stake-holders as well. In 1939, Hitler embarked upon the course of aggression vis-à- vis Poland and didn’t assess and anticipate British reaction to such a misadventure. This led to disastrous consequents for Germany and the Global system generally speaking. Pakistan though not fully comfortable with being a willing partner in the Global War on Terror, has to be committed to the same owing to international concerns and being apprehensive of international backlash.
4) World Public Opinion
Similarly the state, while formulating its foreign policy has to take into account the world public opinion. World public opinion is more effective when it is supported by the domestic public opinion of the given state. Israel usually flouts agreements and canons of international law with a least regard for them, but in the process it has lost international goodwill. Power is not about military hardware or nukes and ammunitions; it is equally important component of a state’s prestige known as ‘soft power’. It is well known that the US administration was made to effect changes in its Vietnam policy largely due to hostile world public opinion.
5) Alliances
Alliances concluded by various states also influence their foreign policy. The states parties to the alliances have to respond to the requests and demands of their allies and refrain from formulating policies or taking actions which are offensive to the alliance partners. During the decade of fifties when Pakistan was known as the most allied ally of the United States, Pakistan had to exercise its vote against the People’s Republic of China blocking its entry into the world forum. China on its part understood Pakistan’s compulsions and didn’t entertain any ill-will against Pakistan. During the height of cold war, neither the member of the ‘Warsaw Pact’ nor those of ‘NATO’ could pursue any independent foreign policy.
INTERNAL DETERMINANTS
1. Historical Influence
The foreign policy of a country is to a large extent the legacy of its history. Each country possesses an individuality of its own, which is the outcome of its historical and geographical configuration. The cultural and historical traditions go a long way in moulding the foreign policy of a state. To a large extent the approach of a nation to the foreign problems is determined by its traditional values and beliefs which have
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greatly determined foreign policy not only of the states of the region, but also of the entire world. The attitude of the super powers during the cold war, towards the region of the Middle East in particular, was to a large extent, dictated by their desire to control the oil.
We can say that the natural resources and raw material exercise considerable influence upon the foreign policy of a country. In the absence of a sound industrial complex, they can make a state vulnerable to foreign intervention, but with their domestic consumption and indigenous input, they can be a real boon for any country. In such a case, the state would pursue its foreign policy more confidently and assertively.
4. Economic Development
The level of economic development attained by a country has deep impact on the foreign policy of the state. One of the middle range objectives of the foreign policy of a state is to expand, diversify and strengthen its economic relations with the external world. An increased economic activity warrants that the surplus goods, raw material and services of the country have markets outside the country and that the state may ensure the procurement of the needed products, raw material and services at economical rates. Pakistan and India are energy deficient courtiers. This deficiency on the part of these countries in particular and the rest of the world in general has been one of the important determinants of their foreign policies.
Pakistan and India are bargaining with Iran for the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline and with Turkmenistan for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. Besides a proposal for exporting gas from Qatar is also under consideration. India has received a big boost in this regard with the coming into force fo the US-India deal on the peaceful nuclear technology. This has virtually legitimized Indian nuclear programme much to the chagrin of Pakistan which has since been strenuously lobbying for getting the same status. However, owing to Pakistani track record on the AQ Khan saga, the response from the US and the West has been lukewarm in this regard. However, People’s Republic of China has been amenable to Pakistani requests on this count. Similarly Pakistan is always concerned about securing markets for its raw material, cotton, rice, leather products, sportsware and cotton products. The level of economic development has a direct relationship with the life standard of the citizens of the given country.
5. Industrial Development
The industrial development of a state also plays an important role in determining its foreign policy. This is evident from the fact that industrially developed countries like USA, Russia, Japan, Germany, France and England are able to exercise great influence in the international affairs. Realizing the importance of this factor in adding to the strength and prestige of a country even the underdeveloped and agricultural countries are keen to get industrialized as quickly as possible. A country possessing rich natural resources has to depend on the advanced countries for capital and
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technical assistance, so that these resources are exploited to the maximum level. A naturally gifted state devoid of effective infrastructure is almost as poor and backward as any resourceless state can be. So development of a sound infrastructure is a sine qua non in order to enable the naturally gifted state to fully capitalize on its natural resources, and utilize them in their industrial complex.
Industrial development, though dependent upon the natural resources and raw materials at home, is sometimes not limited to the scarcity or absence of them. Just to refer to one of the industrial giants i.e. Japan, it doesn’t have the indigenous resources to satiate the ever-increasing needs and requirements of its industry; it has to import most of them. However this limitation on its part has not incapacitated it; rather it has prompted its policy maker to come up with new techniques and planning strategies and become an industrial leader.
6. Military Power
Besides all the preceding factors, the military strength of a country also determines the effectiveness of its foreign policy. A state possessing sufficient military strength has greater initiative and bargaining power in the international arena. The case of Israel can be quoted as an example. She continues her precarious existence despite the combined opposition of the Allied nations; she has power to maintain an assertive foreign policy. Unlike geographical and natural resources, the military capacity is not a static factor. It keeps on changing. The states try to impress about their military superiority in a number of ways, such as nuclear tests, mobilization of army, periodical display of military forces, devices and techniques.
Military strength of a country is closely linked to its resourcefulness and the development of its industry. A developed civil industry can be made to manufacture military hardware during the time of wars and crises.
7. Population
The human force constitutes another determinant of foreign policy. The strength of a nation depends upon the quality and quantity of its human factor. The enormous population of China enabled it to pursue a forceful foreign policy. On the other hand the falling birth rate in France compelled her to toe a weak foreign policy during the inter-war period. Qualitatively, the population should be healthy, educated and prosperous. It should also possess technical know-how. It is however, to be noted that the population of a country has to be evaluated in relation to its other attributes. If the resources of a country are not sufficient to meet the requirements of the large population, the latter may pose a serious challenge to the very existence of the state. But if there are sufficient resources to meet the requirements of a large population, then it certainly adds to the power of the state, as this may enable it to mould its foreign policy accordingly. Instances from USA and the defunct Soviet Union’s history can be quoted to substantiate this point. On the other side if the state possesses sufficient natural resources but less population, then it may not be able to assert it.
to war against each other. As the world in general becomes more democratic, it is hoped that war will be replaced with peaceful methods of conflict resolution. However, dictatorships faced with the problem of legitimacy at home and abroad usually create issues out of non-issues in order to justify the continuation of their illegal rule. Hitler and Mussolini embarked upon the path of international conquests because they were to deliver to the masses very quickly otherwise their citizens would have been disillusioned. Saddam Hussain failing to arrest problems inside the country had to lay claims on Kuwait in 1990.
11. Role of Media & Think-tanks
In modern times the role of media in determining the Foreign Policy of a state cannot be overestimated. Media has to faithfully highlight the issues of public concern; doing so it serves both as a corrective machine as well as a guide for the policy makers. Usually former diplomats, strategists, and military generals take part in productive discussion on media. The Government and Foreign Office have to take the input from media and think-tanks very seriously. In fact, in the US, the think-tanks and media play a very significant role in the orientation of its foreign policy.
Conclusion
It is clear from the above discussion that foreign policy of a country is determined by a number of factors. As most of these factors are of changing nature, so with their evolution or transformation, foreign policies of countries also keep on changing. In addition to these factors, certain developments at the international level such as development of thermo-nuclear technology, onset of cold war and military alliances, elimination of colonialism have exercised profound influence on the foreign policies of different countries. The creation of United Nations has also left a mark on the foreign policies of different countries. The end of cold war influenced the states in every region of the world to modify their foreign policies in according with the changing dynamics of the world. Post 9/11 has a similar effect on the states. Pakistan had to make very important strategic readjustments in the wake of these terrorist attacks on the world trade centre and Pentagon. In short it can be said that apart from the national determinants of foreign policy, international environment also plays an important role in the formulation and orientation of the foreign policy of a state.
