EECS 126 Midterm 1 - Probability Theory, Exams of Probability and Statistics

A midterm exam from the university of california, electrical engineering and computer sciences department, taken in fall 1998 by an unnamed student. The exam covers various concepts in probability theory, including independence, mutual exclusivity, conditional probability, and error probability in binary channels.

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2012/2013

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Name: _________________________ Student ID No: ______________
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
College of Engineering
Department of Electrical Engineering and
Computer Sciences
Professor Tse Fall 1998
EECS 126 — MIDTERM #1
2 October 1998, 11:10–12:10
[20 pts.] 1a.Suppose that are events and . What can you say about if:
i) and are independent?
ii) and are mutually exclusive?
iii) ?
iv) ?
[10 pts.] b. If the occurrence of event makes more likely (i.e., ), then does the
occurrence of event make more likely? Justify you answer.
[30 pts.] 2. There are 2 machines having lifetimes distributed with cdf’s and . Suppose one of
the 2 machines is randomly picked with equal probability and put in operation at time 0.
Conditional on the fact that the machine is still running at time , what is the probability
that it is machine 1 that was picked?
[20 pts.] 3a.Consider a binary channel with cross-over probability
Suppose .
Further suppose you use a detection rule which decides that 0 is transmitted if 0 is
received, and 1 is transmitted if 1 is received. Find the probability that you will make an
error.
[20 pts.] b. Suppose now that . A student thinks that a random detection
rule can perform better than the detection rule above. Namely, the student flips a biased
coin with . If the coin lands on a tail, the student decides that what is trans-
mitted is the same as what is received; if the coin lands on a head, he decides that what is
transmitted is opposite to what is received. What is the probability that the student makes
an error using this rule? Is this a better rule than the one in (a)?
E F,
P E( ) 0.4=
P E F( )
E
F
E
F
F E
E F
B
A
P A B( ) P A( )>
A
B
F1
F2
t
Pinput 0=( ) p=
Pinput 1=( ) 1p=
p1
2
--- ε1
, ε2 ε1
2
---
<= = =
Phead( ) ε=
pf2

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Name: _________________________ Student ID No: ______________

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA College of Engineering Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences

Professor Tse Fall 1998

EECS 126 — MIDTERM

2 October 1998, 11:10–12:

[20 pts.] 1a. Suppose that are events and. What can you say about if:

i) and are independent?

ii) and are mutually exclusive?

iii)?

iv)?

[10 pts.] b. If the occurrence of event makes more likely (i.e., ), then does the

occurrence of event make more likely? Justify you answer.

[30 pts.] 2. There are 2 machines having lifetimes distributed with cdf’s and. Suppose one of

the 2 machines is randomly picked with equal probability and put in operation at time 0. Conditional on the fact that the machine is still running at time , what is the probability that it is machine 1 that was picked?

[20 pts.] 3a. Consider a binary channel with cross-over probability

Suppose.

Further suppose you use a detection rule which decides that 0 is transmitted if 0 is received, and 1 is transmitted if 1 is received. Find the probability that you will make an error.

[20 pts.] b. Suppose now that. A student thinks that a random detection

rule can perform better than the detection rule above. Namely, the student flips a biased coin with. If the coin lands on a tail, the student decides that what is trans- mitted is the same as what is received; if the coin lands on a head, he decides that what is transmitted is opposite to what is received. What is the probability that the student makes an error using this rule? Is this a better rule than the one in (a)?

E F , P E ( ) = 0.4 P E F ( )

E F

E F

F ⊂ E

E ⊂ F

B A P A B ( ) > P A ( )

A B

F 1 F 2

t

P ( output =1 input = 0 ) =ε 1 P ( output = 0 input = 1 ) =ε 2

P ( input = 0 ) = p

P (input = 1 ) = 1 – p

p

--- (^) , ε 1 ε 2 ε 1 2

P ( head) = ε

Name: _________________________ Student ID No: ______________