Solutions to ECE 313 Second Hour Exam, University of Illinois, Fall 2001 - Prof. Dilip Sar, Exams of Statistics

The solutions to the second hour exam for the ece 313 course at the university of illinois, fall 2001. It covers topics such as properties of cdfs and pdfs, probability distributions, and decision making. Students can use this document to check their understanding of these concepts and prepare for exams.

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University Solutions to Second Hour Exam ECE 313
of Illinois Fall 2001
1. (a) P{X > b} = 1 – FX(b). If FX(a) < FX(b), then a < b.
If a < b, then FX(a) < FX(b). FX(u) = 1/2 for some u, – < u < .
The first two properties hold for all CDFs since FX(u) is a right-continuous non-decreasing function. But,
if a < b, it is possible that FX(a) = FX(b) because the CDF did not increase between those points (it cannot
decrease, of course.) As a counterexample for , note that for a Bernoulli random variable with parameter
p 1/2, FX(u) takes on values 0, p, and 1 only. Thus, and are not properties of all CDFS.
(b) fX(u) 1 for all u, – < u < .limu fX(u) = 0
limu fX(u) = 1 P{a < X < b} = P{a X b}
The second and fourth properties are satisfied by all pdfs. The first need not hold: the value of the function
is a probability density, not a probability mass, and can exceed 1 for some pdfs. On the other hand, no pdf
can possibly satisfy the third property.
2. P{{|X – 4| > 3} = P{X > 7} + P{X < 1} = 1 – Φ( )
7–2
5 + Φ( )
1–2
5 = 1 – Φ(1) + Φ(–0.2)
= 1 – Φ(1) + 1 – Φ(0.2) = 2 – 0.8413 – 0.5793 = 0.5794.
P{X < 3 | X > 2} = P{2 < X < 3}/P{X > 2} = 2[ ]
Φ( )
3–2
5Φ( )
2–2
5 = 2(Φ(0.2) – 0.5)
= 1.1586 – 1 = 0.1586
3.(a) The pdf of X has value 0.2 for –1 u 4, is as shown below in the left-hand figure below. We have that
E[Y] = E[|X–1|] =
1
1 0.2(1–u) du +
1
4
0.2(u–1) du = 0.2(u – u2/2)
1
–1 + 0.2(u2/2–u)
4
1 = 1.3.
0.2
–1 4 –1
v
–1
v1
1
2
v+1
1–v v+1
(b) Y takes on values in the range [0, 3]. From the middle and right-hand figures above, we see that
for any v, 0 v 2, FY(v) = P{Y v} = P{1–v X v+1} = 0.2(v+1–(1–v)) = 0.4v, while
for any v, 2 v 3, FY(v) = P{Y v+1} = P{X v} = 0.2(v+1–(–1)) = 0.2(v+2).
Hence, fY(v) =
0.4, 0 v 2,
0.2, 2 v 3
0, elsewhere which is easily verified to be a valid pdf.
4.(a) N(3, 6] is a Poisson random variable with parameter 3µ. Hence, P{N(3, 6] = 2} = exp(–3µ)•(3µ)2/2!.
(b) If there are 2 arrivals in (0, 6], and also 2 arrivals in (3, 9], then it must be that in the disjoint intervals
(0, 3], (3, 6], and (6, 9], there are (2, 0 ,2) arrivals respectively, or (1, 1, 1) arrivals respectively, or
(0, 2, 0) arrivals respectively, which correspond to values of N(3, 6] of 0, 1, and 2 respectively.
Hence, by the independence of arrivals in disjoint intervals, we get that
P(AB) = P{N(3,6] = 0}•P{two arrivals in (0, 3] and two arrivals in (6, 9]}
+ P{N(3,6] = 1}•P{one arrival in (0, 3] and one arrival in (6, 9]}
+ P{N(3,6] = 2}•P{no arrivals in (0, 3] and no arrivals in (6, 9]}
= exp(–3µ)•[exp(–3µ)•(3µ)2/2!]2 + [exp(–3µ)•(3µ)]•[exp(–3µ)•(3µ)]2 + [exp(–3µ)•(3µ)2/2!]•[exp(–3µ)]2
= exp(–9µ)•[81µ4/4 + 27µ3 + 9µ2/2]. Hence, we have
P{N(3, 6] = 1 | AB} = P{{N(3, 6] = 1} AB}/P(AB) = 27µ3
81µ4/4 + 27µ3 + 9µ2/2 = 12µ
9µ2 + 12µ + 2
5.(a) X is an exponential random variable with parameter λ0 = 1 or λ1 = 2 according as hypothesis H0 or H1 is
true. Thus, the pdfs f0(u) and f1(u) are as shown below where the crossing-point is easily found by equating
2•exp(–2t) = exp(–t) and solving to get t = ln 2. Thus, we see that the maximum-likelihood decision rule
chooses H1 if T < θ = ln 2, and H0 if T > ln 2. Hence, i = 0, θ = ln 2 in the decision rule exhibited on the
exam..
pf2

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University Solutions to Second Hour Exam ECE 313

of Illinois Fall 2001

1. (a) ¬ P{ X > b} = 1 – F X (b). Á If F X (a) < F X (b), then a < b.

 If a < b, then F X (a) < F X (b). à F X (u) = 1/2 for some u, –∞ < u < ∞. The first two properties hold for all CDFs since F X (u) is a right-continuous non-decreasing function. But, if a < b, it is possible that F X (a) = F X (b) because the CDF did not increase between those points (it cannot decrease, of course.) As a counterexample for Ã, note that for a Bernoulli random variable with parameter p ≠ 1/2, F X (u) takes on values 0, p, and 1 only. Thus,  and à are not properties of all CDFS. (b) ¬ f X (u) ≤ 1 for all u, –∞ < u < ∞. Á limu→ – ∞ f X (u) = 0  limu→ ∞ f X (u) = 1 à P{a < X < b} = P{a ≤ X ≤ b} The second and fourth properties are satisfied by all pdfs. The first need not hold: the value of the function is a probability density , not a probability mass, and can exceed 1 for some pdfs. On the other hand, no pdf can possibly satisfy the third property.

2. P{{| X – 4| > 3} = P{ X > 7} + P{ X < 1} = 1 – Φ( 7–2 5 )+ Φ( 1–2 5 )= 1 – Φ(1) + Φ(–0.2)

P{ X < 3 | X > 2} = P{2 < X < 3}/P{ X > 2} = 2[ Φ( 3–2 5 )– Φ( 2–2 5 )]= 2(Φ(0.2) – 0.5)

3.(a) The pdf of X has value 0.2 for –1 ≤ u ≤ 4, is as shown below in the left-hand figure below. We have that

E[ Y ] = E[| X –1|] = ∫

1

0.2(1–u) du + ∫

1

4 0.2(u–1) du = 0.2(u – u^2 /2)

  • 0.2(u^2 /2–u)

^4

1

v

v

v+

1–v v+

(b) Y takes on values in the range [0, 3]. From the middle and right-hand figures above, we see that for any v, 0 ≤ v ≤ 2, F Y (v) = P{ Y ≤ v} = P{1–v ≤ X ≤ v+1} = 0.2(v+1–(1–v)) = 0.4v, while for any v, 2 ≤ v ≤ 3, F Y (v) = P{ Y ≤ v+1} = P{ X ≤ v} = 0.2(v+1–(–1)) = 0.2(v+2).

Hence, f Y (v) =

0.4,^0 ≤^ v^ ≤^ 2,

0.2, 2 ≤ v ≤ 3 0, elsewhere

which is easily verified to be a valid pdf.

4.(a) N (3, 6] is a Poisson random variable with parameter 3μ. Hence, P{ N (3, 6] = 2} = exp(–3μ)•(3μ)^2 /2!. (b) If there are 2 arrivals in (0, 6], and also 2 arrivals in (3, 9], then it must be that in the disjoint intervals (0, 3], (3, 6], and (6, 9], there are (2, 0 ,2) arrivals respectively, or (1, 1, 1) arrivals respectively, or (0, 2, 0) arrivals respectively, which correspond to values of N (3, 6] of 0, 1, and 2 respectively. Hence, by the independence of arrivals in disjoint intervals, we get that P(AB) = P{ N (3,6] = 0}•P{two arrivals in (0, 3] and two arrivals in (6, 9]}

  • P{ N (3,6] = 1}•P{one arrival in (0, 3] and one arrival in (6, 9]}
  • P{ N (3,6] = 2}•P{no arrivals in (0, 3] and no arrivals in (6, 9]} = exp(–3μ)•[exp(–3μ)•(3μ)^2 /2!]^2 + [exp(–3μ)•(3μ)]•[exp(–3μ)•(3μ)]^2 + [exp(–3μ)•(3μ)^2 /2!]•[exp(–3μ)]^2 = exp(–9μ)•[81μ^4 /4 + 27μ^3 + 9μ^2 /2]. Hence, we have

P{ N (3, 6] = 1 | AB} = P{{ N (3, 6] = 1} ∩ AB}/P(AB) = 27 μ

3 81 μ^4 /4 + 27μ^3 + 9 μ^2 /

= 12 μ 9 μ^2 + 1 2 μ + 2 5.(a) X is an exponential random variable with parameter λ 0 = 1 or λ 1 = 2 according as hypothesis H 0 or H 1 is true. Thus, the pdfs f 0 (u) and f 1 (u) are as shown below where the crossing-point is easily found by equating 2•exp(–2t) = exp(–t) and solving to get t = ln 2. Thus, we see that the maximum-likelihood decision rule chooses H 1 if T < θ = ln 2, and H 0 if T > ln 2. Hence, i = 0, θ = ln 2 in the decision rule exhibited on the exam..

University Solutions to Second Hour Exam ECE 313

of Illinois Fall 2001

2

1

ln 2

t

(b) PFA = P{ X < ln 2 | H 0 is true} = 1 – P{ X > ln 2 | H 0 is true} = 1 – exp(–λ 0 •ln 2) = 1 - exp(–ln 2) = 1/2. PMD = P{ X > ln 2 | H 1 is true} = exp(–λ 1 •ln 2) = exp(–2•ln 2) = exp(–4). (c) The MEP rule compares π 1 •f 1 (T)/π 0 f 0 (T) = (0.4)•2•exp(–2T)/[(0.6)•exp(–T)] = (4/3)•exp(–T) to the threshold 1 and chooses H 1 if this ratio exceeds 1. Thus, the MEP decision rule chooses H 1 if exp(T) < 4/3, i.e. if T < ln(4/3). Note that ln(4/3) < ln 2 and the MEP rule is thus playing the odds and choosing the more likely hypothesis H 0 whenever ln(4/3) < T < ln 2, in which cases the maximum- likelihood rule would be choosing H 1. We have that i = 0 as before, and θ = ln(4/3). (d) More generally, the MEP rule chooses H 1 if exp(T) < 2π 1 /π 0 = 2(1–π 0 )/π 0 and H 0 if exp(T) > 2π 1 /π 0. If π 0 > 2/3, then 2(1–π 0 )/π 0 < 1, and hence exp(T) > 2π 1 /π 0 for all T > 0. It follows that if π 0 > 2/3, then the MEP rule always chooses H 0. On the other hand, 2π 1 /π 0 = 2(1–π 0 )/π 0 is finite for all π 0 > 0, and hence there is always a T for which exp(T) > 2π 1 /π 0. Thus, for any π 0 > 0, the MEP rule will choose H 0 on those trials on which the outcome exceeds ln(2π 1 /π 0 ), and will not always choose H 1. The MEP rule will always choose H 1 only when π 0 = 0, in which case, it should be intuitively obvious that it makes no sense for an MEP rule to make any choice other than H 1 !!