UNCLASSIFIED

NOLTR

71-31

MATHEMATICAL

EVALUATION3

FOR

CONTROLLING

HAZARDS

By:

William

T.

Fine

ABSTRACT:

To

facilitate

expeditious

control

of

hazards

for

accident prevention

purposes,

two

great

needs

have been

rec-

ognized.

These

are

for

(1) a

method

to

determine

the

relative

seriousness

of

all

hazards

for

guidance

in

assigning

priorities

for

preventive

effort;

and

(2)

a

method

to

give

a

definite

determination

as

to

whether

the

estimated

cost

of

the

contem-

plated

corrective

action

to

eliminate

a

hazard

is

justified.

To

supply

these

needs,

a

formula

has

been

devised

which

weighs

the

controlling factors

and

"calculates

the

risk"

of

a

hazardous

situation,,

giving

a

numerical

evaluation

to

the

urgency

for

remedial

attention

to

the

hazard.

Calculated

Risk

Scores

are

then

used

to

estabiish

priorities

for

corrective

effort.

An

additional

formula

weighs

the

estimated

cost

and

effectiveness

of

any

contemplated

corrective

action

against

the

Risk Score

and

gives

a

determination

as

to

whether

the

cost

is

justified.

/

/

PUBLISHED

8

MARCH

1971

NAVAL

ORDNANCE

LABORATORY

WHITE

OAK,

MARYLAND

i