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Debt & Financial Crises in Developing Countries: Original Sin & Currency Boards, Apuntes de Gestión de Recursos Humanos

The concept of 'original sin' in developing economies, where they cannot borrow in their domestic currencies. It delves into the problems caused by this fact when economies borrow in international financial markets, focusing on the types of financial capital and the experiences of latin america and east asia. The document also discusses the importance of exchange rate regimes, banking, and the sequence of reform measures in preventing and managing crises.

Tipo: Apuntes

2018/2019

Subido el 25/05/2019

lamarinika
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UNIT 9: DEBT AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Essential terms:
“Original sin”: refers to the fact that developing economies can not borrow in
their domestic currencies.
1. The problem of original sin
When developing economies borrow in international financial capital markets,
the debt is almost always denominated in US$, yen, euros “original sin”
A devaluation of the domestic currency causes an increase in net foreign wealth.
When a depreciation/devaluation of domestic currencies occurs in developing
economies, the value of their liabilities (debt) rises because their liabilities are
denominated in foreign currencies.
2. Types of financial capital
DEBT FINANCE
1. Bond finance: government or comercial bonds are sold to private foreign
citizens.
2. Bank finance: commercial banks lend to foreign governments or foreign
businesses
3. Official lending: the World Bank or -inter-American Development Bank or
other official agencies lend to governments.
EQUITY FINANCE
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UNIT 9: DEBT AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Essential terms:

  • “Original sin”: refers to the fact that developing economies can not borrow in their domestic currencies.

1. The problem of original sin

  • When developing economies borrow in international financial capital markets, the debt is almost always denominated in US$, yen, euros “original sin”
  • A devaluation of the domestic currency causes an increase in net foreign wealth.
  • When a depreciation/devaluation of domestic currencies occurs in developing economies, the value of their liabilities (debt) rises because their liabilities are denominated in foreign currencies.

2. Types of financial capital

DEBT FINANCE

  1. Bond finance: government or comercial bonds are sold to private foreign citizens.
  2. Bank finance: commercial banks lend to foreign governments or foreign businesses
  3. (^) Official lending: the World Bank or -inter-American Development Bank or other official agencies lend to governments.

EQUITY FINANCE

  1. Foreign direct investment: a foreign firm directly acquires or expands operations in a subsidiary firm.
  2. Portfolio equity investment: a foreign investor purchases equity (stock) fir his portfolio.

3. Latin American, East Asian and Russian crises

LATIN AMERICA

  • In the 1980s, high interest rates and an appreciation of the US dollar, caused the burden of dollar denominated debts in Argentina, Mexico, Brazil and Chile to increase drastically.
  • The US government insisted that the private banks reschedule (cambiar) the debts, and in 1989 Mexico was able to achieve:
  • a reduction in the interest rate,
  • an extension of the repayment period
  • a reduction in the principal by 12%
  • Brazil, Argentina and other countries were also allowed to reschedule their debts with private banks after they defaulted.

Mexico

  • Political instability and the banks’ loan default contributed to another crisis in 1994, after which the mexican government allowed the value of the peso to fluctuate.

Argentina

  • 1970s- unsuccessful to stabilize inflation through a crawling peg.
  • 1980s- successive inflation stabilization plans involving currency reforms, Price controls and other measures
  • 1990s- a currency board (peso-dollar peg)
  • 2001-2002 – It defaulted (incumlió) on its debts and abandoned the peso- dollar peg
  • Staring in 1991, Argentina carried out similar reforms:
  • Reduced government déficits
  • Reduced production in the public sector by privatizing industries
  • Reduced barriers to trade
  • Enacted tax reforms to increase tax revenues
  • Enacted the Convertibility Law, which required that each peso be backed with 1 US dollar, and it fixed the Exchange rate to 1 peso per-US dollar.
  • Because the central was not allowed to print more pesos without have more dollar reserves, inflation slowed dramatically.
  • The price/value of Argentinean goods appreciated relative to US and other foreign goods. (due to the yet inflation)
  • Due to the relatively rapid peso price increases, markets began to speculate about a peso devaluation.
  • A global recession in 2001 further reduced the demand for Argentinean goods and currency.
  • Maintaining the fixed exchange rate was costly because high interest rates were needed to attract investors, further reducing investment and consumption demand, output and employment.
  • As incomes fell, tax revenues fell and government spending rose, contributing to further peso inflation Brazil
  1. Foreign financial capital financed much of investment, and current account balances turned negative.
  • Despite the rapid economic growth in East Asia between 1960–1997, growth was predicted to slow
  • The East Asian crisis started in Thailand in 1997, but quickly spread to other countries.
  • A fall in real estate prices, and then stock prices weakened aggregate demand and output in Thailand.
  • A fall in aggregate demand in Japan, a major export market, also contributed to the economic slowdown.
  • Speculation about a devaluation in the value of the baht occurred, and in July 1997 the government devalued the baht slightly, but this only invited further speculation.
  • Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines soon faced speculations about the value of their currencies.
  • All of the effected economies except Malaysia turned to the IMF for loans to address the balance of payments crises and to maintain the value of the domestic currencies.
  • Due to decreased consumption and investment that occurred with decreased output, income and employment, imports fell and the current account increased after 1997.

RUSSIA

  • After liberalization in 1991, Russia’s economic laws were weakly enforced or non-existent.
  • The IMF offered loans of foreign reserves to try to support the fixed exchange rate conditional on reforms.
  • But in 1998, Russia devalued the ruble and defaulted on its debt and froze financial capital flows.
  • Without international financial capital for investment, output fell in 1998 but recovered thereafter, partially helped by rising oil prices.
  • Inflation rose in 1998 and 1999 but fell thereafter.
  • 2000 – It enjoyed a rapid growth rate.

4. Currency boards and dollarization

A currency board is a monetary policy where the money supply is entirely backed by foreign currency, and where the central bank is prevented from holding domestic assets.

  • The central bank may not increase the domestic money supply (by buying government bonds).
  • This policy restrains inflation and government deficits.
  • The central bank also can not run out of foreign reserves to support a fixed exchange rate.
  • Argentina enacted a currency board under the 1991 Convertibility Law.

Dollarization is a monetary policy that replaces the domestic currency in circulation with US dollars.

  • In effect, control of domestic money supply, interest rates and inflation is given by the Federal Reserve.
  • A lender of last resort policy and the possibility of seignoirage for domestic policy makers are eliminated.

Argentina ultimately abandoned its currency board because the cost was too high: high interest rates and a reduction in prices were needed to sustain it.

5. Lessons from crises

The lessons from developing country crises are summarized as:

  • Choosing the right exchange rate regime
  • The central importance of banking
  • The proper sequence of reform measures
  • The importance of contagion
  1. Fixing the Exchange rate has risks:
  • A fixed currency may encourage banks and firms to borrow in foreign currencies, but a devaluation will cause an increase in the burden of this debt and may lead to a banking crisis and bankruptcy.
  • Commitment a fixed exchange rate can cause a financial crisis to worsen: high interest rates make loans for banks and firms harder to repay, and the central bank can not freely print money to give to troubled banks (can not act as a lender of last resort).
  1. Weak enforcement of financial regulations can lead to risky investments and a banking crisis.
  2. Liberalizing financial capital flows without implementing sound financial regulations can lead to financial capital flight.
  3. The importance of expectations: even healthy economies are vulnerable to crises when expectations change.
  4. Potential reforms

Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime

Countries can attain only 2 of the 3 goals, and as financial capital has become more mobile, maintaining a fixed exchange with an autonomous monetary policy has been difficult. Therefore, we have an IMPOSSIBLE TRIANGLE