NARRATIVE REPORT, Study notes of Business

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Richard Addy, Co-Founder, AKAS

FEBRUARY 2022

NARRATIVE REPORT

THE BUSINESS

IN AFRICA

Acknowledgments

This project is a collaboration between Africa No Filter and AKAS. The report was prepared by a team led by Richard Addy, co-founder of AKAS. Data analysis by Richard Addy and Peter Todorov with support from Samuel Matsiko. Research assistants were Hannan Rais and Emma Wilson. Editing and proof reading by Judy Nagle and additional proof reading by Liz Sparg. Design and layout by Sharkbouys. Project coordination by Natasha Kimani.

About Africa No Filter

Africa No Filter is a not-for-profit international organisation that supports the development of nuanced and contemporary stories that shift stereotypical and harmful narratives within and about Africa. Through research, grant-making, advocacy, and community building, we aim to develop an ecosystem of narrative change-makers by supporting storytellers, investing in media platforms and driving disruptive campaigns. We believe that if we invest our money, time, and voice into the community of African storytellers and content creators, we will over time see an increase in narratives and stories that reflect a more diverse, dynamic, and evolving continent.

About AKAS

AKAS is an award-winning international audience strategy consultancy founded in 2012, delivering impact, audience, corporate, narrative and communication strategies to a wide range of purpose-led organisations. AKAS has worked with over 50 clients including The Guardian, BBC News, BBC World Service, The Fuller Project/ Nation Media Group, The World Bank, IMF, OECD, European Investment Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Asian Development Bank, International Energy Agency, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Open Society Foundations, Thomson Foundation, Luminate, Adessium, Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, Wellcome, George Lucas Foundation, Participant Media and Warner Bros. AKAS recently won the Media Research Group’s award for best international research and a Gold Anthem Award for purpose and mission-driven work. Co-founder Richard Addy is also a board member of Guardian.org.

The African Continental Free Trade Area is the largest free

trade area in the world, with 54 participating countries and

access to a combined Gross Domestic Product of $3.4 trillion.

Yet this makes up under 1% of business news and analysis

about business in Africa in global and African media.

Executive

summary

Last year, African Development Bank President Dr Akinwumi Adesina told an audience of African Ambassadors in Washington that a concerted effort to change the narrative on Africa in the United States was necessary to attract increased US investments into the continent.

He is right. Several academic researchers have proved a correlation between media coverage and investment levels, and one study of the stock market in the US showed that media visibility led to more investment than under- investment.

The African Continental Free Trade Area is the largest free trade area in the world, with 54 participating countries and access to a combined Gross Domestic Product of $3. trillion. Yet this makes up under 1% of business news and analysis about business in Africa in global and African media.

The absence is glaring. Very few institutions are as powerful as the media. As storytellers to millions, they have the power to shape public perceptions and inform narratives – good and bad – about the investment landscape and opportunities in Africa.

Africa No Filter believes that there has never been a better moment to change the investment narrative on Africa, and in order to do that, we need data.

So we commissioned The Business in Africa Narrative Report because, to date, we have not been able to find any detailed data analysis

that unpacks African and international narratives, stories and frames about business in Africa.

Our report fills that gap, providing the most comprehensive quantitative analysis every undertaken. We show the keywords, frames, stories and narratives associated with business in Africa are dangerously distorted.

There is an overemphasis on the role of governments, foreign powers and larger African states alongside an underappreciation of the role of young people, women, entrepreneurs, creative businesses, smaller successful African states and Africa’s future potential.

This report investigates news and content about business in Africa and the impact of perceptions about Africa as a business and investment destination. It also identifies information and news gaps that offer alternative framing for business in Africa.

The report analysed over 750 million stories published between 2017 and 2021 on more than 6,000 African news sites and 183, sites outside the continent. Insights were gained using eight research approaches, including analysing trends on Twitter, academic research and literature reviews as well as 22 global business indices.

The report found seven significant frames to stories about business in Africa:

1. More negative coverage: International media are more likely to negatively frame issues that impact on business in Africa while African media are twice as likely to reference corruption in their coverage of business in Africa compared to international media.
2. Foreign powers scramble for Africa: 70% of international coverage about business in Africa is dominated by references to foreign

List of

abbreviations

AEC African Economic Community

AUC African Union Commission

AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area

AFP Agence France-Presse

ANF Africa No Filter

AP Associated Press

FDI Foreign direct investment

IIoT Industrial internet of things

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

WSJ The Wall Street Journal

List of

figures

Figure 1: The Wall Street Journal , Financial Times and Institute for Security Studies – negative and positive frames about democracy trends in Africa Figure 2: The relationship between frames, stories and narratives Figure 3: African countries have the highest search rate on Google for the topic of business Figure 4: Business references are increasing in academic papers that mention Africa Figure 5: “Africa” and “Africa” and “business” references in academic papers have declined in the last decade Figure 6: The size, sentiment and impact of the seven key frames and 15 sub-frames for business in Africa Figure 7: 2017-2021 volume trends for the frames

• the Group 2 and Group 6 frames are the only two that were found in most articles Figure 8: In African media most of the keyword clusters had a positive tone but a lower prevalence Figure 9: In international media most of the keyword clusters had a negative tone Figure 10: Summary of “Foreign powers’ scramble for Africa” frame Figure 11: Links to pan-African and international news brands (2021) Figure 12: Prevalence of mentions of foreign power Figure 13: Prevalence of “foreign power” keyword clusters in African media vs non-African media Figure 14: Prevalence of mentions of China Figure 15: Government websites are three times more likely to link to global business news providers than they are to pan-African news providers (2021)

Figure 16: Prevalence of 15 African countries in “Africa” and “business” stories (African media) Figure 17: Prevalence of 15 African countries in “Africa” and “business” stories (non-African media, Jan-Sept 2021) Figure 18: Summary of the “There are only South Africa and Nigeria” frame Figure 19: African countries ranked by position across 21 business-related indices (2015–2021) Figure 20: African countries where business- related market research questions were asked (2015–2021) Figure 21: Prevalence of mentions of South Africa Figure 22: Prevalence of mentions of larger states vs smaller states Figure 23: Mauritius is the highest-ranking African country in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index Figure 24: Summary of “Silencing Creativity, Amplifying Technology” frame Figure 25: Prevalence of mentions of terms related to “start-up”, “technology/innovation” and “creative business” Figure 26: Prevalence of mentions of terms related to “start-up” Figure 27: Summary of “Where are the youth and the women?” frame Figure 28: Barriers to young people starting a business Figure 29: Prevalence of mentions of terms related to “youth” Figure 30: Prevalence of terms related to “gender equality” Figure 31: Most coverage of business in Africa, both in Africa and internationally, references terms related to “government”, “policy” and “regulation” Figure 32: African media focused more on themes related to “government” than on themes related to “entrepreneurial” in its coverage of business in Africa Figure 33: Summary of “Missing free trade area and investment” frame

• Technology and innovation frames are widely used in coverage of business in Africa (see Section 6.4 ).

Frame 5: “Where are the youth and the women?”

• The voices of youth are not heard enough in coverage of business in Africa, and internationally the sentiment in youth coverage is negative (see Section 6.5 ).
• African media cover gender equality issues in business more than international media do, but coverage levels are still very low (see Section 6.5 ).

Frame 6: “Government everywhere”

• Most coverage of business in Africa references government, policy or regulations (see Section 6.6 ).

Frame 7: “Missing Free Trade Area and investment”

• The African Continental Free Trade Area is getting little attention from media, researchers, think tanks and academia (see Section 6.7 ).
• Foreign direct investment is treated as a niche subject in coverage of business in Africa (see Section 6.7 ).

2. Exploring

negative frames:

“Coups in Africa” –

case study

On 4 November 2021, The Wall Street Journal ( WSJ ), a leading international business newspaper, declared in a headline, “Military Coups in Africa at Highest Level Since End of Colonialism: Attempted or successful coups in Africa are occurring more frequently as democratic states buckle under pressure from COVID-19”^2 (see Figure 1a). The headline, the article and the accompanying audio discussions exemplified three of the seven frames found in our wider examination of stories about business in Africa:

• International media take a predominantly negative tone about Africa (Frame 1). Relying on analysts from the global north, the WSJ provided a more negative interpretation of development than the African-based think tank, Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
• Foreign powers are seen as the protagonists and Africa the pawn in a geo-political game (Frame 2). The WSJ article discusses the strategic roles of external powers – in this case China, Russia, the USA, France and the European Union. This emphasis on foreign

powers is common among non-African storytellers.

• Youth perspectives are missing (Frame 5). Despite the critical role that young people have played in democratic struggle across the continent, this was not highlighted in the WSJ article.

Such framing can and does distort investment decisions and perceptions about doing business in Africa. While some claim that it is a merely a statement of fact that the number of successful coups has increased from one in 2020 to four in 2021 (with one further attempted coup), an examination of the stories shows that the WSJ could have chosen to highlight a number of other facts. For example, in 2021, 50 African countries (over 92%) did not experience a coup, the percentage of African countries deemed free by Freedom House increased from 14% to 16%, and the number of attempted and successful military coups (five) was in fact no higher than in previous years (five in 2012) or, indeed, had decreased (from nine in 2013).

Ironically, a day before this WSJ article was published, the ISS also published an analysis showing how similar information could be presented in a more nuanced way, balancing positive and negative democracy trends across Africa, as well as highlighting the pro-democracy role being played by younger people^3 (see Figure 1c).

A comparison of these two approaches provides an example of how narratives can have a very damaging effect on perceptions of the business environment in Africa. When AKAS surveyed Americans to probe how they interpreted the headline “Military

2. Faucon et al., 2021
3. Gopaldas, 2021

3. Research

approach

The following eight research approaches were used in compiling this report:

1. Trends analysis: Key trends over time were examined in relation to business in Africa, covering public interest, media coverage, academic research focus and economic performance.
2. News media content analysis: A big data approach was adopted to analyse over 750 million stories published between January 2017 and September 2021 on over 6, news sites across the 54 African countries and 183,000 other news sites outside Africa.
3. Key influencers content analysis: A more specific content analysis was carried out for the period January 2021 to November 2021, covering the websites of 35 pan-African and international business and general

news media, 10 international and regional institutions, 7 consultancies, 15 African business schools and 12 leading African think tanks.

4. African news media content analysis: An in-depth analysis was conducted examining 85 stories covering economics and business issues, published across 60 African news providers during September and October 2020.
5. 2000–2021 literature review: Google Scholar was used to understand the trends in academic articles that reference Africa and business.
6. 2019–2021 surveys analysis: Survey responses were analysed for nearly 100 business questions posed in 15 pan-African and global surveys, mainly between 2019 and 2021.
7. Indices/database analysis: AKAS’ database of global indices was used to unearth business-related indices and sub-indices to understand the business performance of African states.
8. Twitter analysis: various analyses of Twitter conversations were performed to identify key words and phrases used in business conversations that reference Africa.

4. Defining

frames, stories

and narratives

Throughout this report, the terms “narrative”, “story” and “frames” are used. They are defined in the following way and illustrated in Figure 2:

• Stories are a structured way of bringing together facts, experiences and imagination. The classic story will have a beginning that sets the context, a middle section that provides a turning point or jeopardy, and an end section that provides uplifting resolution. However, stories can and do veer away from this classic structure. For example, tragedy-based stories tend not have a positive resolution at the end. Stories tend to stand alone, whereas narratives and frames are about patterns.^7 - Narratives are the collective meaning of multiple stories over time. Once established, narratives can be challenging to shift. - Frames are a particular angle or lens for viewing a story. They focus on a thin slice of reality. For each business story in Africa, there are underlying frames that offer a positive or negative tone, focus on problems or opportunities, take a large country or small country perspective, or emphasise certain actors over others. The power of frames is in how they define a problem, identify its cause, provide solutions, and evaluate these solutions. 8

This report examines seven frames that have been unearthed during the research process, through keyword searches in academic papers, news media reports and social media conversations. However, it is important to state that these frames are not exhaustive. It is also important to clarify that the keywords used extensively in this analysis are not frames in and of themselves; frames are not carried by single words but are part of a complex mosaic of messages.

7. For a more detailed discussion of story types, see Booker, 2004.
8. Entman in Dan and Raupp, 1993
9. Analysis carried out by AKAS in 2021.

Individual story

Individual story

Individual story

Individual story

Individual story

Frame (one dimension of stories)

Narra?ve

(Collec?ve meaning of mul?ple stories)

Frame (one dimension of stories)

Figure 2: The rela?onship between frames, stories and narra?ves

AKAS analysis, 2021

Figure 2: The relationship between frames, stories and narratives 9

An ANF-commissioned report, “How African Media Covers Africa”^14 , found that of the over 300 stories manually sampled, 13% came under the “business, economics and trade” category, representing a sizeable share of African newsrooms’ output. This was the joint second largest category along with conflict coverage, ranking just behind politics at 14%. One major US-based big data study of “Afro- pessimism” and “Africa rising” narratives looked at nearly 140,000 stories from The New York Times , The Washington Post , The Wall Street Journal and other USA newspapers over the 25-year period between 1994 and 2018 and found that business and economics represented the largest category of stories, out of a total of 14 categories. 15

In the 1980s and 1990s, sub-Saharan countries experienced painful declines in GDP per capita^16 that placed them at the bottom of the global economic and business league tables. However, by 2020, despite COVID-19, sub-Saharan Africa boasted seven of the top 10 fastest growing economies, while “the 200 largest sub-Saharan African companies by market capitalization rewarded investors with a 13% total return, beating the global emerging market average of 12% and the global frontier market, which lost 3%”.^17

It is therefore no surprise that in the field of academic research, the proportion of “Africa” referenced papers on Google Scholar that also mention the term “business” quadrupled, rising from 10% in 2000 to over 40% in 2021 (see Figure 4).

15. Bleich et al., 2020
16. Ayuba and Haynes, 2017
17. Bloomberg, 2020
18. AKAS literature review of the percentage of academic papers mentioning the term “Africa” that also include the term “business” (Google Scholar, 2000–2021), 2021

Figure 4: Business references are increasing in academic papers that mention Africa 18

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021

The percentage of “Africa” referenced academic papers that include the term “business” (2000–2021)

Figure 4: Business references are increasing in academic papers

that men?on Africa

AKAS literature review of the percentage of academic papers menYoning the term “Africa” that also include the term “business” (Google Scholar, 2000–2021), 2021

What is more surprising is that, at a time when business in Africa has become a “hot topic”, the overall volume of academic papers that reference “Africa” has declined sharply, falling from a peak of over a million papers in 2012

to just over 200,000 papers in 2020. A slower but still pronounced decline in articles that reference “Africa” and “business” has been in evidence since 2014 (see Figure 5).

Figure 5: “Africa” and “Africa” and “business” references in academic papers have declined in the last decade 19

19. AKAS literature review of the percentage of academic papers mentioning the term “Africa”, and those mentioning the terms “Africa” and “business” (Google Scholar, 2000–2021), 2021

Millions Africa

Africa Business

“Africa”

“Africa” and “business”

Academic papers referencing “Africa” and “Africa” and "Business” (2000–2020)

Figure 5: “Africa” and “Africa” and “business” references in

academic papers have declined in the last decade

AKAS literature review of the percentage of academic papers menYoning the term “Africa”, and those menYoning the terms “Africa” and “business” (Google Scholar, 2000–2021), 2021

Figure 6: The size, sentiment and impact of the seven key frames and 15 sub-frames for business in Africa 20

20. AKAS analysis of the impact of the seven “Business in Africa” frames,^8 2021

Africa business frame group

Descrip?on

Group 1: “More nega?ve coverage”

Significant propor?on of ar?cleswith a nega?ve sen?ment

Africa business frame sub- group

Less posi?vecoverage

% of ar?cles with key terms: Corrup?on Corrupt, Corrup?on, Bribe, Fraud

% of ar?cles with key terms: USA,United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Britain, France

Foreign power Group 2: “Foreign powers’ scramble forAfrica”

African stateLarger % of ar?cles with key terms: SouthAfrica, Nigeria dominance % of ar?cles with key terms:Mauri?us, Botswana, Seychelles, Namibia, Cape Verde

out AfricanCrowded- states % of ar?cles with key words: Entrepreneurs OR Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurial,Entrepreneur, Entrepreneurialism, Start-up, Startup

Entrepre- neurial

% of ar?cles with key terms: Crea?ve Business, Crea?ve Businesses, Music Business, MusicIndustry, Film Business, Film Industry, Fashion Business, Fashion Industry, Art Industry

Crea?ve business

% of ar?cles with key terms:Science, Technology, Innova?on, Innovate, Innovators, Innova?ve

Technology & innova?on % of ar?cles with key terms: Youth, Youthful, Young People, Young Popula?on

Youth

% of ar?cles with key terms: Gender Equality, Gender Inequality, GenderBias, Gender Balance, Gender Gap, Gender Equity, Feminism, Feminist, Women’s Rights, Women’s Issues, Sexist, Sexism

Gender equality

% of ar?cles with key terms: African AfCFTA Con?nental Free Trade Area,AfCFTA

% of ar?cles with key terms: FDI, Foreign Direct Investment,Interna?onal Investment, Interna?onal Investors, Foreign Investors, Foreign Investment

FDI

% of ar?cles with key terms: Government, Governments, Policies, Policy, Regula?on, Regula?ons, Laws

Government regula?onpolicy

Group 3: “There are only South Africa and Nigeria”

“SilencingGroup 4: crea?vity, amplifying technology”

Group 5: “Where are the young & the women?”

Group 7: “Missing freetrade area & investment”

“GovernmentGroup 6: everywhere”

In Africa

Major or mega frame

OutsideAfrica

Yes

Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Frame impact

Frame may be under or over emphasised in the business in Africa narra?ve

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Interna?onal mediamore intensively nega?ve in its coverage vs African media

Interna?onal mediaincreasingly focusing on foreign power interests

Too much emphasis especially on South Africa Smaller states not given enough ajen?on Despite having deep entrepreneurial aspira?on, coverage ajen?on is marginal

Crea?ve business and culture are tradi?onally not given enoughajen?on

Youth struggling to be heard through tradi?onal channels Women represent 50% of the popula?on yet gender equality issues not being widely discussed

Impact of AfCFTA not understood or debated

Every state wants FDI to boost jobs

Historically governments have played a dominantrole in economies

Influen?albusiness Ajen?on on interna?onal brands inAfrica vs African brands brands

n/a n/a Yes Focus on interna?onalbrands not African

Amount of business coverage from Africa vs outside Africa

Volume deficit n/a^ n/a^ Yes^

African businesscoverage s?ll dominated by outsiders

Sub-frames^15 74 key words

Posi?ve sen?ment

Yes(30% Nega?ve) (39%Yes Nega?ve)

Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

In AfricaOutsideAfrica

n/a n/a

n/a n/a

69%Yes (9/13)

54%Yes (7/13)

23%Yes (3/13)

38%Yes (3/13)

85% Yes ( 11/13)

The majority of framesare distor?ng the Business in Africa narra?ve

7 Frames Summary

No

No

Figure 7: 2017–2021 volume trends for the frames – the Group 2 and Group 6 frames are the only two that were found in most articles 21

21. AKAS analysis of the impact of the seven frames, 2021