plz solve this question..

Jan Northcutt, owner of Northcutt Bikes, started business in 1995 when she noticed the quality of bikes she purchased for sale in her bike shop declining while the prices went up. She also found it more difficult to obtain the features she wanted on ordered bikes without waiting for months. Her frustration turned to a determination to build her own bikes to her particular customer specification.She began by buying all the necessary parts (frames, seats, tires, etc.) and assembling them in a rented garage using two helpers. As the word spread about her shop’s responsiveness to options, delivery, and quality, however, the individual customer base grew to include other bike shops in the area. As her business grew and demanded more of her attention, she soon found it necessary to sell the bike shop itself and concentrate on the production of bikes from a fairly large leased factory space. As the business continued to grow, she backward integrated more and more processes into her operation, so that now she purchases less than 50% of the component value of the manufactured bikes. This not only improves her control of production quality but also helps her control the costs of production and makes the final product more cost attractive to her customers. The Current Situation: Jan considers herself a hands-on manager and has typically used her intuition and her knowledge of the market to anticipate production needs. Since one of her founding principles was rapid and reliable delivery to customer specification, she felt she needed to begin production of the basic parts for each particular style of bike well in advance of demand. In that way she could have the basic frame, wheels, and standard accessories started in production prior to the recognition of actual demand, leaving only the optional add-ons to assemble once the order came in. Her turnaround time for an order of less than half the industry average is considered a major strategic advantage, and she feels it is vital for her to maintain or even improve on response time if she is to maintain her successful operation. As the customer base has grown, however, the number of customers Jan knows personally has shrunk significantly as a percentage of the total customer base for Northcutt Bikes, and many of these new customers are expecting or even demanding very short response times, as that is what attracted them to Northcutt Bikes in the first place. This condition, in addition to the volatility of overall demand, has put a strain on capacity planning. She finds that at times there is a lot of idle time (adding significantly to costs), whereas at other times the demand exceeds capacity and hurts customer response time. The production facility has therefore turned to trying to project demand for certain models and actually building a finished goods inventory of those models. This has not proven to be too satisfactory, as it has actually hurt costs and some response times. Reasons include the following: • The finished goods inventory is often not the “right” inventory, meaning shortages for some goods and excessive inventory of others. This condition both hurts responsiveness and increases inventory costs. • Often to help maintain responsiveness, inventory is withdrawn from finished goods and reworked, adding to product cost. • Reworking inventory uses valuable capacity for other customer orders, again resulting in poorer response times and/or increased costs due to expediting. Existing production orders and rework orders are both competing for vital equipment and resources during times of high demand, and scheduling has become a nightmare. The inventory problem has grown to the point that additional storage space is needed, and that is a cost that Jan would like to avoid if possible. Another problem Jan faces is the volatility of demand for bikes. Since she is worried about unproductive idle time and yet does not wish to lay off her workers during times of low demand, she has allowed them to continue to work steadily and build finished goods. This makes the problem of building the “right” finished goods even more important, especially given the tight availability of storage space. PAST DEMAND: The following shows the monthly demand for one major product line: the standard 26-inch 10- speed street bike. Although it is only one of Jan’s products, it is representative of most of the major product lines currently being produced by Northcutt Bikes. If Jan can find a way to use this data to more constructively understand her demand, she feels she can probably use the same methodologies to project demand for other major product families. Such knowledge can allow her,she feels, to plan more effectively and continue to be responsive while still controlling costs. Month 2017 2018 2019 2020 January 437 712 613 701 February 605 732 984 1291 March 722 829 812 1162 April 893 992 1218 1088 May 901 1148 1187 1497 June 1311 1552 1430 1781 July 1055 927 1392 1843 August 975 1284 1481 839 September 822 1118 940 1273 October 893 737 994 912 November 599 983 807 996 December 608 872 527 792 Tasks

Plot the data and describe what you see. What does it mean and how would you use theinformation from the plot to help you develop a forecast?
Use 4 months simple and weighted moving average to develop a forecast for the next four months’ demand.
If the exponential smoothing forecast of the Dec 2020 is 900 units, what would be the next four months’ forecast if alpha = 0.7. The actual demand of the next three month turns out to be 830, 1328, 927.
For the next four months, which method from question 2 is “better”? How do you know that?
How, if at all, could we use Jan’s knowledge of the market to improve the forecast? Would it be better to forecast in quarterly increments instead of monthly? Why or why not?
Calculate seasonal index of each month based on the given table data.
What would be the expected demand of bikes in the coming year each month, using calculated seasonal index, if expected annual demand of bikes is 20,000 units.
Are there other possible approaches that might improve Jan’s operation and situation?What would they be and how could they help?
How could Jan’s improve its operational capability and capacity to produce more number of units? Suggest possible ways to improve.

Kindly determine a method using which we pass less values than number of arguments of a function.

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plz solve this question..